Violence, Deprivation and Disaffection - Coolock and Darndale Arrests Analysis

It has been well documented the link between deprivation and far-right violence. 

There's a pattern of far-right agitators infiltrating local protests in Ireland. The well-known agitator Phillip Dwyer being amongst the arrests today speaks to that, as he is not from the local area. However, twelve of the fifteen charged yesterday evening with public order offences gave addresses in the Coolock and Darndale areas. I need not point out the arson, the racism, the alleged assault of a security officer and Gardaí, and destruction of Garda vehicles to make the case that the level of wanton criminality and violence today is far beyond the norm.

Given that some of the protests in other parts of the country have passed off relatively peacefully, what makes Coolock and Darndale different? 

I aim to answer this by linking the social determinants of violence to the areas the people charged come from, including rampant unemployment, high lone parent ratios and (as the punctuation error intimates above) very low levels of education compared with the general population.

1. Dean Ward, of Cromcastle Crescent, Coolock

Cromcastle Crescent is not listed on either Eircode or Google Maps, so I am assuming this is a transcription error for Cromcastle Close, which is in Kilmore B. 170 people live here.

This area is classed as Very Disadvantaged.

The area has an age dependency ratio of 40%, which is under the national average of 53%

Lone parent ratio is over 53% (compared with a national average around 25%). Lone parent families are five times more likely to experience material deprivation and consistent poverty.

Male unemployment is 33% here; female unemployment is 20% (compared with a population-wide rate of approximately 4%)

Only 16% in this area have a third-level education (compared with 48% of the general population). Third level education is highly correlated with higher income, lower unemployment, better labour opportunities and lower levels of poverty.

In summary, people who live here are three times as unlikely to have a third-level education, and are about six times more likley to be unemployed, despite having less dependents than other areas.

2. Colin Belton, of Belcamp Avenue, Priorswood

Belcamp Avenue is in a small area of 363 people, and is also classed as Very Disadvantaged

Again, the area has quite a low age dependency ratio of 28%, about half the national average. 

Lone parent ratio is 35% - again, above the national average. 

The small area has one of the poorest education rates in the state, with less than 10% possessing a third-level degree in this area.

Unemployment is still way above the national average, with 18% male and 14% female, making residents on average about four times more likely to be unemployed than the national average.

3. Owen Burke, of Newtown Drive, Ayrfield

Newtown Drive is one of the better-off small areas in this article. However, it is still classed as Marginally Below Average

Age dependency ratio is still quite low at 36%, and the lone parent ratio is actually below the national average at 19%.

However, third-level education is way below the national average at 28%. It also has a particularly high male unemployment rate of 14%, way above the national average of about 4%. Female unemployment is broadly in line at 5%.

4 and 5. Christopher Byrne and Patrick Scanlon, of Marigold Crescent, Darndale

Marigold Crescent is in a small area of 275 people; providing two of the people charged. It is classed as Very Disadvantaged

Age dependency ratio, like all the other areas so far in this list, is relatively low at 31%.

Lone parent ratio is 59% in this area, more than double the national average. 

Only 9.4% possess a third-level qualification (compared with a national average of 48%). Male unemployment is 15%; female is 13%

6. Josh Hanlon, of Marigold Court, Darndale

Marigold Court is in a small area of 348 people. It is also classed as Very Disadvantaged

Again, it has a low age dependency ratio of 27%.

Lone parent ratio is 52%. 

The third level education rate is just over 9%. 26% only have primary-level education.

Male unemployment is a huge 28%, with female unemployment running at 17.5%.

7. Stephen Burke, of Bunratty Road, Coolock

Bunratty Road mostly falls into a small area of 387 people. Like many of the other areas here, it is classed as Very Disadvantaged

Age dependency ratio again is actually very low at 25%

However, the lone parent ratio is up at 60%. Only 13% have a third level education, and unemployment rates are 22% for males and 20% for females; many times the national average.

8. Martin Maughan, of Chanel Grove, Coolock

Chanel Grove falls into a small area of 253 people. It is classed as Marginally Below Average

Age dependency ratio here is 32%, and lone parent ratio is actually below the national average, at 18%.

However, male unemployment is high, at 14%, and female unemployment is also raised from baseline, at 9%. Third-level qualification attainment is also low, at 28%, although quite a lot higher than some other areas on this list. 

9. Anthony Moody, of Clonshaugh Walk, Priorswood

Clonshaugh Walk is in a small area of 360 people. It is classed as Disadvantaged

Age dependency ratio is again low; at 31%. Lone parent ratio is also on the national average, at 25%.

Third-level attainment is again low, at 13%.

Unemployment, while nearly double the national average, is relatively low compared to other areas locally, at 7,6% for men and 8.9% for women.

10, John Turner, of Ferrycarrig Park, Coolock

Ferrycarrig Park is in a small area of 359 people in the 2022 Census. It is classed as Very Disadvantaged

Age dependency ratio is again low at 32%.

Lone parent ratio is high, at 48%

It has less than 9% with a third-level education

Male unemployment is 17.6%; female unemployment runs just under 13%

11. Andrew Vickery, of Moatview Avenue, Darndale

Moatview Avenue is in a small area of 282 people at the last census. It is classed as Disadvantaged.

Age dependency ratio is low again; at 29%. Lone parent ratio is 57% - more than double the national average.

Only 12% have a third-level education - a quarter of the national average. Male unemployment runs at 25%; female unemployment just below 17%

12. Joyce Bergin, of Cromcastle Park, Kilmore

Cromcastle Park is in a small area of 239 people. It is classed as Very Disadvantaged

Age dependency ratio is low, as with every other address in this article; at 34%.

However, that is again the only positive indicator.

Lone parent ratio is the highest yet; at 68%.

Third level education is 9.7% - meaning only 23 people in this area have a third-level education.

Male unemployment is 25%; female unemployment is 20%.

Analysis

Of the twelve that are from the close vicinity of Coolock and Darndale, eleven are male. Eight live in areas classed as "Very Disadvantaged"; two are "Disadvantaged", and the other two live in areas that are classed "Marginally Below Average". 

All of the areas have low age dependency ratios, which means that there are less children and older people than other areas.  All areas have high unemployment, with male unemployment running over eight times the national average in some areas. Most have high lone parent ratios.

Statistically speaking, we know that around 88% of lone parent families are headed by mothers.

In other words, what most of these areas have in common is that they have large numbers of unemployed working-age men who are not caring for children. 

Take Marigold Court, for example. Of its 348 people, 77 are dependents (aged 0-14 or 65+), giving 271 working-age people; an average of 135 men. Of those 135 working-age men, 38 of them are unemployed. Of the dependents, national averages tell us that there are approximately 42 children in this area, in 32 family units. Of these 32 family units, 17 of them are lone parent families - approximately 15 single mothers, and 2 single fathers. 

In other words, this small area including Marigold Court of 348 people has approximately 33 males who are working age, unemployed, and do not care for a child of their own. Of these, at least nine of them only have primary-school level of education. Given that those with third-level qualification are more likely to be employed, it is reasonable to conclude that less than three of these have a third-level qualification - possibly none of them - meaning they are less likely to be able to pull themselves out of poverty. One could argue that this sort of demographic profile could meet the criteria for an off-line involuntary celibate (or "Incel") cohort, an online phenomenon of straight while males that has been associated with racism and promotion of violence.

It is important to point out that these areas of Dublin above are outliers. They do not represent the reality for the majority of the city, or the country. Take the neigbouring Lorcan Road area of Santry as an example. In this area, the population is 262. Age Dependency Ratio is 36.64%, giving 70 dependents (39 children; 31 over 65s); and an average of 192 working-age people; estimate of 96 of them being male. Lone parent ratio is 11%. Male unemployment is 4.4%; female unemployment is 3.39% - both in-and-around the national average. In other words, for a comparable area, there are only four males unemployed. 29 families; three of them lone parent. In other words, this area has just 3 males working age, unemployed and not caring for a child. This area is classed Marginally Above Average, and is surrounded by marginally below average areas with similar statistics. In other words, you are seeing TEN TIMES less males who could theoretically be in the "incel" category in an average area compared to Marigold Court. 

All people are ultimately responsible for their own actions, and this predominantly male cohort will no doubt pay the legal price for their actions yesterday, should they be held responsible in a court of law. However, the above data suggests there is a very clear role here for targeted programmes for the Coolock, Darndale, Priorswood and Kilmore areas that focus on reducing the unemployment rate, improving education levels and tackling the deprivation and poverty that are creating the conditions for such racism, intolerance and violence to flourish, and for bad actors to convince these people to blame immigration for problems which have nothing to do with immigration, and indeed far predate times when inward migration to Ireland was in any way significant. There are social determinants of violence, and it is imperative that authorities, while rightly condeming the violence and intolerance, take meaningful steps to reduce the likelihood of future violence. Otherwise, they are culpable by omission for failing to take steps to prevent and deal with the root causes of yesterday's events.